Argument: Turkey is unlikely to intervene if the Kurds secede
- Nir Rosen. "The case for cutting and running". Atlantic Monthly. 2005 - "Would Turkey invade in response to a Kurdish secession?
- For the moment Turkey is more concerned with EU membership than with Iraq's Kurds—who in any event have expressed no ambitions to expand into Turkey. Iraq's Kurds speak a dialect different from Turkey's, and, in fact, have a history of animosity toward Turkish Kurds. Besides, Turkey, as a member of NATO, would be reluctant to attack in defiance of the United States. Turkey would be satisfied with guarantees that it would have continued access to Kurdish oil and trade and that Iraqi Kurds would not incite rebellion in Turkey."