Argument: Iran would respond to an attack by disrupting oil prices
Joseph Kirschke. "A Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Facilities: Assessing Potential Retaliation". Global Geopoltics. December 06, 2007 - "Kenneth Katzmann, a senior analyst for Persian Gulf Affairs for the Congressional Research Service at the Library of Congress, quoted a former Air Force planner as saying 400 targets must be struck including 75 that would require 'penetrating munitions' to sufficiently disrupt Iran’s nuclear ambitions (2.) – as evidence emerges of some facilities being placed inside populated areas. (3.) [...] A response by Iran, he noted in an interview, could very easily take on economic dimensions. 'What they’re going to do is drive up petrol prices,' he said, noting that even threatening speeches by Iranian leaders can impact world oil prices. 'We feel they’re going to do something ‘out of the box.’' For example, he said, Iran could disrupt shipping in the Straits of Hormuz – the channel at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which two-fifths of the world’s oil passes. 'They may even use their influence to get the Basra oil workers to walk off the job,' said Katzmann, 'to not only get Iranian oil off the market, but Iraqi oil off the market, too.' [...] Such moves by Tehran are not without precedent. During the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, foreign oil tankers were frequent targets of Iranian mines, rocket attacks and gunboats, driving up international oil prices – and prompting American intervention. [...] 'Iran could intensely threaten Gulf shipping for short periods, deter commercial ships from entering the Gulf, drive up insurance rates for Gulf shipping and boost world oil prices on nervous markets,' according to the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Washington think tank. (4.)"