Argument: A civil war in Iraq would draw in regional powers
- Ardalan Hardi. "Leaving Iraq, a Catastrophe to U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East". June 4th, 2007 - "An abrupt retreat would invite a host of problems including an all-out civil war. A civil war that will most definitely draw in Turkey, Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia into the conflict. All of the neighboring states are eager to devour a piece of the pie; Iran with its religious propaganda, Syria with his link to Ba’ath party, the Saudi’s with their supposed concerns for the Sunni’s, and Turkey with its hogwash excuses to protect their relatives in Kirkuk. Turkey’s devious goals to squash Kurdish aspirations are already interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs. All this is happening while U.S. military is present in Iraq. Imagine what will happen if the U.S would pull out."
- Byman, Daniel & Kenneth M. Pollack. "Things Fall Apart: Containing the Spillover from an Iraq Civil War". January 2007 - "Iraq is rapidly descending into all-out civil war. Unfortunately, the United States probably will not be able to just walk away from the chaos. Even setting aside the humanitarian nightmare that will ensue, a full-scale civil war would likely consume more than Iraq: historically, such massive conflicts have often had highly deleterious effects on neighboring countries and other outside states. Spillover from an Iraq civil war could be disastrous."
- Daniel Byman - "If U.S. forces withdraw, there's a good chance the Iraqi conflict is going to escalate, and that will almost certainly draw in neighbors who feel compelled, for opportunistic or defensive reasons, to get involved," said Byman, a former CIA analyst who directs the security studies program at Georgetown University."
- Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, "fears that an Iraq left without U.S. support could turn into a center for international terrorism and a proxy battlefield for regional powers like Iran, Syria and Saudi Arabia.", according to CNN. He says, "All the surrounding countries would think their interests are much better maintained not by directly sending troops but by continuing to send money and weapons to the people fighting that war[...] In my judgment, it would take decades for such an insurgency to quiet down."