Argument: Iran is likely to have a nuclear weapon within a number of years
Estimates of Iran's ability to obtain a nuclear weapon
- The BBC reported on 6/2/06 - "Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte told BBC Radio's Today programme Tehran could have a nuclear bomb ready between 2010 and 2015."
- John Chipman, the head of The International Insitute for Strategic Studies in London, argued on 1/31/2007 that, "Iran could be only two or three years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon... Iran had stockpiled 250 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which, when enriched, would be enough for 30 to 50 weapons."
- In a 3/27/2006 Institute for Science and International Security report, David Albright and Corey Hinderstein conclude that, "Given another year to make enough HEU for a nuclear weapon, where some inefficiencies in the plant are expected, and a few more months to convert the uranium into weapon components, Iran could have its first nuclear weapon in 2009. By this time, Iran is assessed to have had sufficient time to prepare the other components of a nuclear weapon."